The precise significance of US intelligence to Ukraine’s war effort has, for obvious reasons, never been spelled out in detail.
But most analysts agree that it performs two important functions: helping Ukraine to plan offensive operations against Russian forces, and giving Kyiv vital advance warning of threats posed by incoming Russian drones and missiles.
Satellite information and signal intercepts give Ukrainian forces on the frontline a sense of where Russian forces are, their movements and likely intentions.
Without US intelligence, Ukraine will not be able to make such effective use of long-range Western weaponry, like the US-made Himars launchers or Stormshadow missiles supplied by Britain and France.
Aside from military applications, the steady flow of real-time information provided by Washington has also given Ukraine’s military, critical national infrastructure and civilian population valuable advance information on incoming threats.
Ukraine’s air raid sirens and mobile phone alerts are all informed, to a greater or lesser extent, by the early warning data provided by US satellites, which can detect aircraft and missile launches deep inside Russian territory.
Any prolonged interruption in the supply of US intelligence could have a catastrophic impact on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, particularly as the Trump administration has already decided to suspend vital military assistance.
A few months ago, Ukraine was hoping that the supply of additional air defences -especially the US-made Patriot missile defence system – would enable it to extend protection to a greater number of potential targets, including cities and power stations across the country.
But now Ukraine’s supply of Patriot missiles is running out. The latest European pledges to provide short- and medium-range systems will help to counter some threats, but not against Russia’s most dangerous hypersonic ballistic missiles.
It’s clear that the US is using the withholding of military assistance and intelligence as another – blunt – diplomatic lever.
The US national security adviser, Mike Waltz, said military assistance to Ukraine could resume if Ukraine agrees to participate in US-led diplomatic efforts.
“I think if we can nail down these negotiations and move towards these negotiations… then the president will take a hard look at lifting this pause,” he told Fox News.
The director of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, told Fox Business the pause “will go away”.
But it’s clear what the White House wants from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in return.
