ReutersReform UK leader Nigel Farage has predicted the party will be the “main challenger” to Labour at the Senedd election in 2026.
He will be top billing at the party’s Welsh conference in Newport on Friday, just a day after flying home from the United States having supported Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign.
Farage is expected to take charge of Reform’s Welsh efforts in 18 months, with the party thought unlikely to appoint a specific Welsh leader.
He became an MP at the eight attempt at July’s general election and represents Clacton, in Essex, at Westminster.
In a statement ahead of Friday’s event, Farage said: “The Senedd elections are now just 18 months away.
“During the general election, we launched our Contract with the People in Merthyr Tydfil.”
Describing Reform as “now the main challenger to Labour in Wales”, he added: “Our conference in Newport marks the beginning of our efforts to present a fresh choice to voters who have been badly let down.
“Wales needs Reform.”
Between now and May 2026, Reform is expected to take the fight to Labour, suggesting that people in Wales have paid the price for “failure after failure” by successive Labour governments.
Reform will argue that Labour, Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives offer “the same old stagnant promises and policies”.
Reform are yet to publish a list of policies specific to Wales for the looming election.
Party insiders are targeting a return of at least 16 Members of the Senedd (MSs) in 2026, with Farage having previously said that Reform would win “a lot of seats”.
Reform did not win any in Wales in this year’s general election, but came second in 13 of the 32 seats and secured 16.9% of the vote.
In-fighting
The Senedd’s new system of 16 constituencies, each returning six MSs, is expected to be more favourable to Reform than the first-past-the-post system used for Westminster elections.
If Reform does win seats in 2026, it would mark another anti-establishment breakthrough for Farage in Cardiff Bay.
He was the leader of UKIP when that party won seven seats in 2016, before in-fighting saw the group fall apart over the course of the Senedd term.
Farage later led the Brexit Party, which also had a group in the Senedd.
The Brexit Party became Reform UK.
The party also has councillors in Wales for the first time, with three independent members of Torfaen council switching to Reform soon after the general election.
The emergence of Reform and its relatively high share of the vote represents a challenge to both Labour and the Conservatives in Wales.
‘Leftish elements’
Polling expert Richard Wyn Jones, from the Wales Governance Centre, told the BBC that Reform would have challenges of its own in targeting voters.
He said: “An average Reform voter would be a middle-aged man.
“So their voters are younger, much younger, than the average Conservative voter.
“They’re quite conservative socially, but they’re actually quite left-wing economically.
“And it’s not clear to me if Reform think they need to cater to that kind of more leftish elements in the world view of their voters, because that’s not something you associate with the people financing Reform.”
