I said this morning this Budget would be big. And big is exactly what it is.
We got a sense of that very early on from the chancellor, when she said: “This Budget raises taxes by £40bn.”
To state the obvious, that is a massive amount of money.
The thrust of what we have heard is very much in line with what we reported in advance – with one or two tax rises suggested in some places that are not actually happening.
So, the thresholds at which levels of income tax and National Insurance contributions are paid, which are frozen until 2028, will be unfrozen then.
That’s the opposite of what was expected.
Frozen thresholds contribute towards what is known as “fiscal drag” and amount to big tax rises – where people can be hauled into paying a tax, or a higher rate of it, courtesy of inflation.
But it is worth remembering that Rachel Reeves could have unfrozen the thresholds before 2028 and chose not to, and could later choose to maintain the freeze.
The other tax rise many thought could happen but did not was fuel duty.
But put these two to one side – this is a massive tax raising budget.
Alongside it, where they will spend some of that money – on the NHS and schools in England, for instance.
Big taxes, big borrowing and big spending.
But also projected pretty anaemic growth and inflation above its 2% target.
There is one big question – will all this make enough difference that people think their lives are getting better?
